White Sox Face Big Rotation Decisions

The White Sox have some hard decisions looming when it comes to the starting rotation. The addition of Jeff Samardzija gives the Sox arguably the best righty-lefty combo of any rotation in the big leagues. But that could be short lived unless Jerry Reinsdorf is willing to open the checkbook.

While the Sox can’t be compared to the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers when it comes to spending, the team has shown a willingness to open the coffers when necessary. Since 2006 the Sox have had an average payroll of $107.35 million, topping out at $127.8 in 2011. That’s a nice chunk of cash, but would likely have to go up if they plan to keep Samardzija and Sale long term.  When Sale becomes a free agent at the age of 29 in 2019 the Sox will need at least $25 million a year to keep him. So on the low end of the salary expectations, that leaves two players eating up nearly 40% of the Sox payroll.

Samardzija is set to become a free agent and all signs have pointed to his desire to test the market. Shark certainly ranks behind Zimmermann and Price in the 2016 class and is likely to command a lesser deal than those two, but an offer in the Jon Lester range (6 years $155 million) would not be far-fetched. When it comes to extending Samardzija the White Sox have a few things working in their favor. He is a lifelong Sox fan from northwest Indiana. He is comfortable in Chicago and with the limelight of the Chicago media. Most importantly, the Sox have Sale locked up for five more seasons at a bargain compared to other aces. They also have big money from the John Danks contract coming off the books after the 2016 season.

At 31 years-old entering his free agent year, this is not only Samardzija’s first opportunity to cash in on a monster deal, it’s also likely his last. Sox can look at the $15.75 million coming off the books from Danks and apply that to an extension for Shark, but they also have an escalating contract with Jose Quintana that sits at a lowly $3.5 million this year, increasing to nearly $9 million by 2018 plus an extra $22 million combined in team options in 2019 and 2020, so that will also eat up some of those savings.

Rick Hahn has done a wonderful job of adding impact talent at a discounted price. Veterans like Adam LaRoache and Melky Cabrera are likely to play above their contract numbers in relation to peers around the league. Add in an MVP candidate in Jose Abreu with a cost controlled contract and the Sox have clearly left themselves some wiggle room.

Perhaps the best course of action for Hahn is to hope the Sox go on an extended post season run and appeal to Samardzija’s highly competitive nature and tug at his heart strings to convince him to sign in the 4 year or 5 year range at $25 aav. But if the decision ultimately comes down to choosing between Samardzija now and Sale later, even if Samardzija means four extra seasons of both anchoring the rotation, I don’t see how they can choose Samardzija.