Hamels May be Worth Sitting Out '15 FA Class for Cubs

News that the Cubs were the runners-up in the James Shields derby left many fans and pundits looking at what top of the rotation arm the Cubs can add next. The name that continually comes up is Phillies ace Cole Hamels. There is no doubt the Cubs have the assets to acquire the three time all-star. The question that Theo and Jed will have to answer is if the cost of Hamels outweighs the other options that will become available over the next year.

Hamels will be expensive, not just in cash, but in prospects. The free agent class of 2015 is loaded with top line starting pitchers. Nationals ace Jordan Zimmermann, former Cy Young winner David Price and former Cub and new White Sox hurler Jeff Samardzija are all slated to become free agents. The 7 year $210 million deal Max Scherzer signed with the Nationals will serve as a jumping off point for all three of these pitchers.

Zimmermann is the cream of the crop. He will be entering the 2016 season at just 29 years old while Price will be 30 and Samardzija 31. Price has the hardware but it’s Zimmerman who has put up the more dominant numbers over the last two seasons. While Samardzija is older, he has the shortest track record of the trio as he broke into the bigs in the bullpen.

Hamels is easily in the same echelon as the three mentioned. A career 3.27 ERA, 3.48 FIP and an average 4.4 WAR per season is nearly lock-step with Zimmerman (3.24, 3.31, 4.03), Price (3.21, 3.27, 3.8) and Samardzija (3.85, 3.73, 4.33). For the sake of accuracy, the WAR average includes only the seasons these guys were full-time starters.

While Zimmerman and Price could easily command eight years and $200 million plus, Hamels is owed a guaranteed $94 million over 4 years with a vesting option that can top the contract out at 5 years $118. The Cubs 3 year $60 million offer to James Shields shows that while there are still salary constraints, they have the money to add a $20 million per year pitcher. A commitment that is half in length and money seems like a no brainer. With big money owed Jon Lester over the next six seasons (seven with the option) the Cubs can minimize their risk with a shorter deal. This is part of what was so enticing about James Shields and his plummeting demands. However, it isn’t money that makes up the real value of a deal for Hamels.

Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has shown no interest in softening his high demands for Hamels. Rumors had Amaro asking for three top of the line, ready for MLB prospects in return. That is an asking price few teams outside the Cubs can meet. The Cubs have two players that the Phillies are said to have interest in that are young MLB veterans in catcher Wellington Castillo and pitcher Travis Wood. The Cubs have been known to be shopping both of them during the off season. While that is not nearly enough for Amaro, it could help ease the request for a second or third top farm hand. The Cubs would still have to give up elite talent on top of that.

It’s believed that Addison Russell is that centerpiece that Amaro covets. That is not likely to happen. The Cubs are incredibly high on the shortstop that Billy Beane has called the next Barry Larkin. The more realistic option for both parties is Javier Baez. The last first round pick of the Jim Hendry era, Baez has prodigious power and absolute superstar quality bat speed. He can play multiple positions and has a ceiling as high as anyone in baseball. But contact issues that plagued Baez in his half-season stint in the bigs last year is minor cause for concern.

Baez no longer qualifies as a prospect, but his value is every bit as high as it was a year ago when he ranked among the top ten in the league. The addition of Russell affords the Cubs a great deal of depth and options. Heading into the 2014 season the idea of trading Baez was ludicrous, but with Russell in toe, it’s an asset they can afford to let go for the right price. Though that value is still immense, holding on to Baez in an effort to make a mid-season deal is a gamble. If he falters in the first half of 2015 the way he did in 2014, his value could decrease significantly and his return wouldn’t bring near the talent of Cole Hamels. This is where the rebuilt scouting and development department under Epstein will really be tested. The dilemma facing the Cubs is if the shorter commitment in money and years for Hamels is worth the cost of seeing Baez become a superstar in Philadelphia.  

I can see a scenario where the Cardinals, who are said to have interest, come close to a deal for Hamels the Cubs then jump in and out muscle them. Barring that scenario, I expect the Cubs to wait it out and if they are in contention in July revisit the possibility of a trade.