OBP to Blame for Slower Baseball Games?

As Rob Manferd takes over as the next commissioner of baseball, the question many have been asking is how he plans to address two issues that are perceived weaknesses in the big league game: game length and scoring.

There is no doubt big league games have gotten longer. According to Baseball Prospectus it takes an average of 3:09 to complete a big league game. That is 46 minutes longer than the average game in 1950, when records began being kept.

There are a number of reasons for longer games. More television ads means longer breaks between half innings. The evolution of the bullpen and the amount of time it takes to make pitching changes certainly plays a roll. But perhaps one of the biggest culprits in extending the length of baseball games is the amount of pitches per game.

In 1988 each team averaged just over 136 pitches per game. By 2010, that number skyrocketed to nearly 147. That's an extra 22 pitches per game when you combine both teams. That is almost adding an extra inning per game. But while there have been more pitches thrown and longer games, runs are still down, albeit slightly.

2014 saw an average of 4.07 runs per game. That's down from the 4.38 historical average. That really isn't all that much and is likely not overly noticeable to the casual fan. Essentially you are talking about 1 less run over the coarse of three games less than the average. Where the concern comes in is the steep decline since the end of the steroid era, which peaked just over 5 runs per game in the early 2000's. Scoring has been down for five years straight and concern is that it could plummet further if something is not done.

I'd argue it's not so much the decline in runs but the decline in swings and balls in play that have made the game seem slower. The recent emphasis on strikeout rates for pitchers and on-base percentage for hitters has been paramount in extending the pitch count, thus creating longer at-bats with less action. Nearly one third of at-bats ended in a strikeout, walk or hit by pitch in 2014. That is more than 10% higher than in 1950. That means the ball is not put in play, defense is not making plays, and the batter is not running the bases (during his at-bat). Less movement on the field means a slower game.

While I'm the first to admit taking walks is paramount to a teams offensive success and it's incredibly unlikely to score without base runners, walks (and to a lesser extent strikeouts) are boring.

When Crash Davis told Nuke LaLoosh in "Bull Durham" that ground balls are more democratic, he was right. It keeps the fielders and fans more engaged.