The floodgates have opened when it comes to prospect and farm system rankings. This week mlb.com has been trickling out top 10 positional rankings with a new list released everyday. The week will be capped off by an overall top 50 ranking that will be revealed during a Friday night special on MLB Network. ESPN's Keith Law has also revealed his top 100 prospects along with organizational rankings.
As expected the Cubs are featured prominently on nearly every list. Since taking over a barren system in 2011, Cubs President Theo Epstein has achieved his first goal of rebuilding the Cubs farm system into one of the games best on a yearly basis.
The Cubs are represented in nearly every position in mlb.com's top ten rankings: 1B: Dan Vogelbach (#8), SS: Addison Russell (#3), 3B: Kris Bryant (#1), C: Kyle Schwarber (#3), OF: Jorge Soler (#3).
The hole at second base can be attributed to the mid-season promotions of Arismendy Alcantara and Javier Baez. Both ranked in the top 100 last season. In the outfield the omission of Albert Almora is noticeable and we'll discuss him more in a minute. The last area the Cubs failed to make an appearance is at pitcher. Much has been made of the system's lack of top tier pitching talent, however they have a stable of young arms that have a ceiling as a future #3 or #4 starter. That list is led by CJ Edwards, Pierce Johnson, Duane Underwood, Jeng Ho-Tseng and Carson Sands. These pitchers should begin trickling into the big leagues beginning in 2016.
Let me preface my comments on Law's rankings by recognizing he obviously thinks highly of the Cubs system, ranking it as the game's best. Law rightfully placed three Cubs in the top 15 in all of baseball with Kris Bryant taking the top spot followed by Addison Russell at #4 and Jorge Soler at #14. Where Law's rankings start to lose me is with catcher Kyle Schwarber, who sit at #90, and the absence of Albert Almora.
Schwarber is one of the top 20 bats in all the minor leagues according to a lot of prospect experts, including Baseball America's Ben Badler. Law does not believe Schwarber can stick at catcher, making his bat less valuable in Left field. My problem with this mindset is two-fold. First, The Cubs plan has been and remains to keep Schwarber at catcher. They have been working extensively with him in the offseason to help his development at the position. So, until Schwarber is no longer a catching prospect he should be evaluated as such. My second problem is with Law's emphasis on defense in this particular case conflicting with his evaluation of Albert Almora. If defensive deficiencies are enough to drop a player nearly 70 spots in the overall rankings, then shouldn't a guy with an elite glove at a prime position like Almora see a boost to his value?
Almora disappeared from Law's top 100 list after a subpar offensive season, which was bad but not disastrous. Almora remains an elite defender in center field who will have a big league career regardless of how he hits. The defense is so good that it places his floor as a big league career bench player. I can't imagine that's the case with all the players on Law's top 100.
Of coarse, none of this matters when it comes to on-field productivity, but it does matter in league-wide perception of the team's assets. Prospects are a dangerous game, who more often than not fizzle out. However, depth at each position makes it easier to miss on top prospects and still remain competitive. Some of these guys will be stars, some will fizzle out and some will be traded for established big league talent. Say, for instance, the Cubs are approaching a team about a trade for an ace. If they can present 2-3 top 100 prospects, that is a package that is nearly impossible for any other organization to match without severely depleting it's future.
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