Bears May Have to Wait for Big Roster Changes

Bear fans longing for massive changes to the team's roster may have to wait a year before they see noticeable results. While general manager Ryan Pace will have some wiggle room under the salary cap heading into his first offseason, 2016 will allow him to rebuild the team as he sees fit.

The Bears currently have 49 players under contract for a $114.7 million dollar cap hit, with the 2015 salary cap expected to be in the $140 million range. Veterans Jared Allen, Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, Jermon Bushrod and Lamarr Houston take up $53.6 million, with just over $48 million of that as dead money. This means that cutting these players would have a minimal impact of the team's salary space.

All that changes after next season. Thanks to back loaded contracts, Pace will be able to slash the payroll and target big free agents in 2016. Releasing the five players above would net the Bears a combined $5 million this offseason, but that number skyrockets to over $37 million after the 2015 campaign.

Barring a trade, Cutler will likely be the team's starting quarterback for at least another year. A weak draft class and an even weaker crop of free agent quarterbacks means Cutler is Fox's best option in 2015. However, another underperforming season and a $14 million dollar saving against the cap could be enough to give Jay the ax a year from now. Although few are likely to make it to the open market, the 2016 crop of quarterbacks that may become available include Andrew Luck (will get an extension), Ben Roethlisberger (too old), Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III, and Ryan Tannehill.

One area the new regime will try to address now is a badly lacking pass rush. The Bears are stuck with Jared Allen and his severely declining skills for one more season. All of Allen's $12.5 million is guaranteed this year, but the remainder of his 4-year contract is non-guaranteed after that. Willie Young was a nice surprise in 2014 and Stephen Paea was the groups best performer. Paea is an unrestricted free agent and the Bears will have to evaluate if he fits into new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio's system, which historically has been a 3-4. This could be an area the Bears could greatly improve via free agency now. This year's class of pass rushers include Jason Paul-Pierre, Greg Hardy, Brian Orakpo, Will Witherspoon and Jason Worilds. Outside linebackers are included in this list because it isn't yet clear if the Bears will switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 or some kind of hybrid.

In the secondary, the Bears need a lot of help at safety. Incumbent starters Ryan Mundy and Chris Conte proved to be ineffective when healthy and Brock Vereen looking like a backup at best. Conte is a pending free agent and is unlikely to be back next season. Possible free agent targets include Antrel Rolle, Devin McCourty, Louis Delmas, Nate Allen and Stevie Brown.

Brandon Marshall had a tough season on and off the field. An early season ankle sprained slowed down the perennial pro-bowl wideout and bizarre behavior wore thin on teammates and coaches alike. Marshall's acting out could have been the result of the lack of leadership and accountability under Phil Emery and Marc Trestman. If Marshall can stay more disciplined under John Fox, he is well worth the money. The Bears may find giving that relationship a year before making a decision on Marshall's future may be the best coarse of action.

With limited cap space (compared to 2016) I don't see the Bears going crazy in free agency, instead addressing needs in the draft. That said, the addition of a pass rusher and safety are both possible given the cap room they have to work with. Don't forget that this roster was widely expected to compete for the division title heading into last season and has the talent on the offensive side of the ball to rebound under new leadership. If Fox can't maximize that talent then we are likely to see sweeping roster changes heading into 2016.