Tom Thibodeau is not pleased at all with the minutes limit
the Bulls front office has put on certain players. He made that clear following
the Bulls Sunday loss to the Thunder. While addressing the media Thibodeau
revealed that Joakim Noah was not used much down the stretch because he had
reached his mandated 32 minutes per game. But if Coach Thibs is going to be upset
with anybody, it should be himself.
The Bulls front office believes heavy minutes over Thibodeau’s
tenure have worn players down both physically and mentally. Thibs is notorious
for sitting young players for games at a time while the starters are left to
carry the bulk of the burden. If Thibodeau had shown any inclination to ease a
player back after injury or rest guys in garbage minutes then he likely wouldn’t
be in this position.
Whether the Bulls front office is overstepping its grounds
in this case is inconsequential. The rule is in place and Thibs has to abide by
it. The more pertinent question is why Noah was at his minutes limit so soon
that he was unusable by the end of the game. Thibs knows how many minutes Noah
could play. Like it or not, that’s the situation. Why weren’t there available
minutes down the stretch in a close game?
Thibodeau’s job is to manage his team and if he can’t adjust
to what is being asked, then that is on him. It may not be fair or smart but that’s
life working for someone else. We all have to face procedural changes at some
time in our careers and if we can’t perform then it essentially falls on us.
The marriage between the Bulls front office and head coach
feels like it’s coming to a close. It no longer matters who is right and who is
wrong. Thibs still has a job to do and a responsibility to his players. It’s
time for Thibs to adapt or die.
Two of the most intriguing position battles are taking shape
at Cubs camp. The team entered spring training with five candidates to take the fifth starters job and three options to fill the fifth outfielder roll. One candidate
in each battle has clearly stepped up and grabbed the lead.
Sometimes the best move a front office can make, is the
move it doesn’t make. So far, that’s been the case with Travis Wood. The Cubs
were said to be shopping him all offseason but didn’t find a deal they wanted.
It was thought that the competition for the rotation position would be deep enough
that Wood was expendable. And after his disastrous 2014 season, it seemed to
make sense. Wood came to camp in great shape looking to turn things around after he followed his all-star 2013 with a career worst campaign. So far in the
hitter friendly Cactus League, Wood has looked more like his 2013 version than
the one who put up a 5.03 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and 4.38 FIP. In 10 innings he has a
1.80 ERA and 1.10 WHIP while striking out eight and walking just one.
Injuries have played a part of this battle as young,
talented and frustratingly inconsistent Jacob Turner will miss time with an
elbow injury and Tsuyoshi Wada is nursing a bad hamstring. Had Wada been
healthy and able to perform relatively well in March, then he likely could have
been the favorite with the Cubs still looking for a taker for Wood. But as it
stands, Wood has performed well and gives the Cubs that second lefty they need
in the rotation.
As for Edwin Jackson, his right-handedness is making this an
easier decision for the Cubs. Jackson has been predictably inconsistent this
spring. He has a 0.00 ERA in 5 innings, but has allowed four unearned runs
which can be pointed directly back at his own defensive lapses. The Cubs have
three options with Jackson. Keep him in the pen to eat the occasional meaningless
innings that pop up, release him and eat the money or they can try to find a
taker. The latter is easier said than done.
As for the fifth outfield spot, Matt Szczur has stepped up
big. The speedy defensive specialist has been hitting the ball with reckless
abandon this spring, compiling a .348/.423/.870 slashline with 3 home runs over
11 games. Those numbers of coarse are nowhere near what can be expected once
the season begins, but his ability to play all three outfield positions at an
extremely high level makes him a far more valuable candidate than Ryan Sweeny
or Junior Lake. Both Sczcur and Junior Lake have one minor league option
remaining and Lake has yet to show he is over the contact issues that have
plagued him in the early part of his career.
Ryan Sweeney is the other option for the spot, but at
30-years old you pretty much know what Sweeney is. At 25-years-old, Szczur has
more upside and offers more tools than the veteran Sweeney and so far has been
the surprise of Cubs camp.
There’s still a while to go before the Cubs Easter night
opener against the Cardinals at the construction site known as Wrigley Field.
That means two and a half weeks of injury risk or wheeling and dealing as the
team still has to decide what to do with catcher Wellington Castillo. But
barring a move or a pull, look for Wood and Szczur to break camp on the
25-man-roster.
As I was watching a Cubs spring training game the other day
I was paying close attention to the swing mechanics of the young Cubs
prospects. They all have very different looking swings, from the more polished
aesthetics of Kris Bryant’s opposite field approach to the quickness of Addison
Russell and the wild, flailing untapped potential of Javier Baez. I’ve been
meaning to get to this piece for days, but was sidetracked by some Bears free
agent signings and a 40th birthday party for my brother which
featured a lineup of craft beer’s heavy hitters. Now that those issues are
behind us, let’s take a look at some swing mechanics, what is successful and
what needs work.
Kris Bryant
Bryant has been the talk of the Cactus League, and for good
reason. The Cubs’ top prospect is killing the ball with six home runs and an OPS
nearing 2.000. What makes Bryant so fascinating is more than just his ability
to hit the ball out of the park; it’s where he hits the ball out. Bryant has
the capability of becoming the league’s best opposite field hitter the second
he steps on a big league field. His power alley lies between the gaps and
rarely is he seen pulling the ball down the line. Opposite field power is a
rare commodity in big league ball, so let’s look at how Bryant’s mechanics
allow him to consistently hit the ball with power to right center.
From the start of his swing, Bryant is quiet and relaxed,
with little movement as he begins his swing. From there he goes into a very
small step. The front toe comes up a slight bit creating more of a tap than a
step. This small step allows Bryant to get his front foot down with little
movement to his eye level. Notice his head rocking slightly back then forward.
That’s a more preferable movement than the up-and-down that we see from Javier
Baez (which we will get to in a bit). With a slight back and forth movement the
horizontal sight line remains the same, thus allowing the hitter to get a
better read from the time the ball leaves the pitchers hands. While his step is
a bit more pronounced, it reminds me of another great opposite field hitter but
from the other side of the plate in Jim Edmonds. Edmonds did more of a slight
ankle roll than a step, but ultimately allowed him the same ability as Bryant,
which was to keep a quiet upper body and stay behind the ball even when a
little late.
As Bryant’s foot comes down his hands are in a great hitting
position; back, calm and ready to follow his hips. Bryant’s hips begin to open
slightly before his arms begin to move forward while his head stays behind on
the plate. His hips come through the zone first but his fast hands allow the
bat to catch up so both his hips and hands are square to the ball when it
arrives in the zone. His swing is a long one, but his calm lower body and ability
to stay behind the ball even when late is what generate so much power to right
center.
Bryant’s slight uppercut swing enables him to put a great
deal of backspin on the ball which is why he is able to get so much distance
despite his easy looking swing. That backspin is something his father taught
him as a coach. His father spent a couple spings in Red Sox camp in the early ‘80’s
and was taught the technique by Ted Williams.
My biggest concern with Bryant’s swing is its length and as
he ages and his bats slows a bit he may find himself unable to catch-up with
those fastballs that he is able to drive the other way. That’s a problem that
shouldn’t arise for maybe ten years down the road.
Addison Russell
Unlike Bryant, Russell generates all his power on a dead
pull. He is smaller and far more compact in his swing and will see most of the
balls that leave the yard off his bat go out in dead left field or down the
third base line. That said, Russell still possess the ability to hit for
average up the middle, though directing the ball to right field will prove to
be a challenge for the highly talented 21-year-old.
As you can see, Russell starts with an open stance and his
hands held high. He takes a small step toward the plate and nearly comes to a
complete stop before beginning his swing. Notice the head is completely still
as the ball is delivered allowing him to recognize and identify pitch type and
location. His hands start from nearly shoulder height, which is higher than
Bryant, allowing for a slight uppercut swing.
Russell’s hands are fast and his swing is incredibly
compact. It allows him to do most damage
on balls middle-in and his slight uppercut, like Brant, allows him to put a
great deal of backspin on the ball. That’s where Russell’s power is generated.
Jorge Soler
Soler is a great deal more active in the box and his swing
is loaded with movement, but unlike Javier Baez, Soler’s lower body and hands are
more controlled which cuts down on unnecessary movement. Soler has drastically cut down on his step
with the front foot between the time he signed with the Cubs and when he
reached the big league level. As you can see in this video, Soler had a huge
front step which led to far more movement in his upper half.
Notice the small step and slight ankle turn which allowed
his upper half to settle and get a better read on the pitch. The smaller step
has a huge impact on head movement. The first video of Soler shows his head
moving on both a horizontal and vertical plane. This creates a change in eye
level multiple times in the same swing. In the second video you’ll notice far
less movement above his shoulders.
While is stance is
open and he has to step in toward the place, he keeps his foot down which in
turn keeps his head on a horizontal plane. Like Bryant and Russell, Soler has
an uppercut swing that allows him to put back spin on the ball.
One area where Soler can improve is his hips. Most of his
power is coming to left and center. His hips are slightly in front of his hands
causing him to get out in front of the ball. However, his swing is so quick and
wristy he is able to get around on the ball incredibly fast. If he is able to
slow down his hips to where they can stay behind the ball, he has the potential
to develop an opposite field stroke that would allow him to drive the ball to
right and right center with consistent power, though developing that opposite
field stroke is a lot harder said than done, and the Cubs may be content to let
Soler play pepper with the new video board in left.
Javier Baez
I went in depth here on the changes Baez needs to make to
his swing to become a productive hitter at the MLB level. In that piece I focused on how he faces
similar adjustment to his swing that Sosa had to make in the late ‘90’s. I took
that approach because they are changes that Cub fans may be familiar with. Now
let’s look to it the closest comparison to Baez from a bat speed standpoint and
break down the difference between his swing and that of Gary Sheffield.
The first and most glaring difference is the front foot.
Both players carry an exaggerated step, but while Sheffield steps directly up
and down as a timing mechanism, Baez tends to step up and back. This creates
more movement as he has to bring his front foot forward and back down before
beginning his swing. As we’ve discussed
with the players above, this causes a change in his eye level making it
difficult to identify pitch type and location. It also appears the step from Baez is being
used to generate more power and torque in his swing, while Sheffield’s seems to
be using his step as a way to wait back on the ball before exploding through
the zone.
The other big difference between the two is extension.
Sheffield is able to keep his hands in allowing him to get the bat around
quicker and take a more direct route to the ball. Baez on the other hand, has
fully extended arms, straight elbows and has his weight distribution out over
the front part of his body. This also creates a longer follow through as the
chest of Baez is almost facing the dugout at the conclusion of his swing. By comparison,
Sheffield’s torso is squared to the pitcher. It may not seem like a big deal
where the body is after contact, but it is. Sheffield’s swing is able to find
the ball, square up the ball and use both his weight and bat speed to generate
power. Baez is simply using his bat speed and is nearly blindly flailing at the
ball. The movement to his head, the over-extended arms, being out over the
front of the plate, this is all causing Baez to lose sight of what he is
swinging at.
All of these players are extremely young and after a few
times through the league they will have to make further adjustments. We’ll go
back and analyze those adjustments throughout their careers as needed.
Albert Almora is quietly putting together a solid spring
training as he tries to rebuild his stature as one of baseball’s top outfield
prospects. In 2013 Almora ranked as the Cubs number two prospect behind Javier
Baez, but an influx of minor league talent and a relative down year in 2014 and
Almora found himself left off a number of top prospect lists.
Almora has fallen behind Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Jorge
Soler and on some lists even CJ Edwards, Pierce Johnson and Billy McKinny in
the Cubs system. Some fans and experts are beginning to wonder if despite his
stellar defensive skills, if Almora will be able to hit enough to make a
difference at the big league level.
To that I say; slow down. The 2012 6th overall
pick is young. Taken out of high school, Almora started his 2014 season as the third youngest player in the Florida State League playing for the Daytona Cubs and
following his promotion to AA Tennessee was the 2nd youngest player
in the Southern League. While with Daytona, Almora hit .283/.306/.712 with 7 HR
50 RBI and 20 doubles in 89 games. Not great, but hardly worth getting overly
concerned about given his age. Things didn’t go well in Tennessee. Almora’s
production dropped to .234/.250/.605 with 2 home runs and 10 RBI in 36 games.
The OBP after arriving in Tennessee is absolutely concerning. But when a
player, especially one as young as Almora is promoted, there is usually a bit
of a learning curve.
In addition to his struggles offensively, Almora was dealing
with an issue that weighed heavy on his mind. His father was battling cancer
last season and that may have taken a toll on a young player still trying to
gain his footing.
While most of the Cubs highly touted prospects have big, powerful
bats, Almora has a conflicting style. He is a defense first, gap hitter with 20/20
potential, but not the big 40 HR potential many of his prospect peers possess.
Though he doesn’t have ideal speed for center, he gets great reads off the bat
and takes superb routes to the ball. That kind of defense up the middle is
something the Cubs will badly need in the future far more than they need
another masher, if all the other guys pan out.
Almora is likely to start the season at Tennessee after a
short stint in 2014 and will have to prove that he can handle the pitching
before being considered for Iowa. My guess is he spends all season in AA and if
all goes well he will be on pace for a starting job in AAA in 2016 with the chance
for a mid-late season call-up.
That timetable isn’t the best for the Cubs, who have Dexter
Fowler signed for one season and will be able to make a qualifying offer after
2015. If Fowler has a good enough season to get a big multi-year deal
elsewhere, the Cubs would receive draft pick compensation, but it would also
leave a hole in center as they wait for Almora to be ready for Wrigley.
The bottom line is the Cubs still view him as a major piece
of the future. They love his personality and makeup and that is something that
has weighed heavily on the front office as they rebuilt the system. It’s why
they drafted Almora in 2012, Kris Bryant in 2013 and Kyle Schwarber in 2014. They
love the leadership quality and work ethic in all these guys. If Almora shows
the mental toughness to fight through a rough 2014 and have a breakout 2015,
you will surely see him back in the top half on nearly everyone’s top 100
prospects list next year.
Kris Bryant hit two mammoth home runs in today’s Cactus
League game and once again the drum beats. The voice of those wanting Bryant to
start the season Easter night at Wrigley Field is getting louder and seemingly
every week there’s another story about the plan with Bryant. Part of me is surprised
that it is mid-March and we are still having this discussion. So let’s clear it
up once and for all. There is no legitimate reason what-so-ever for the Cubs to
start the season with Bryant on the big league club.
I know Cub fans are eager to see a winner, but it’s time to ratchet down those expectations a bit and think rationally. You can have a 22-year-old
Kris Bryant for nine games in April. Or you can have a 28-year-old Bryant in
his prime for 162 games. That’s it. That’s the whole story. I don’t want to
hear anything about “if they want to win now”. They do and Bryant is a big part
of that plan. But don’t think for a second that the Cubs brass is looking at
2015 as “the year.” This team, while hugely talented, is still very young and
very raw. It’s going to take some time despite what should be huge
improvements.
CJ Nitkowski wrote a great piece for Fox Sports on the
Braves decision in 2010 to start the season with Jayson Heyward. He mentions
the Braves winning the wildcard by a game and Heyward’s early season production
likely being a big reason for that. But he also discusses the long term impact
of the decision, which resulted in Heyward leaving Atlanta at least a year early and the Braves
getting back a diminished return for the outfielder.
The bottom line is this Cubs team is built around bats in
their lower-mid 20’s. Rizzo, 25; Castro, 24; Soler, 23; Baez, 22; Russel, 21;
Schwarber, 22. Wouldn’t you rather have Bryant for an extra season when this
entire entire group is in their prime? The Cubs front office has a
responsibility to do what is best for the long term goals of the organization.
And while the rule sucks and should be changed in the next collective
bargaining agreement, that’s the way the game is played. And the Cubs shouldn’t
be faulted or called cheap for doing the smart thing.
The Bears made a splash in the first couple days of free agency.
But it was the kind that gets high rankings for Olympic divers, not one of fans
knocking down doors to get the newest jersey. The names Parnell McPhee, Eddie
Royal and Antrel Rolle may not generate much excitement, but they are low cost
and shrewd additions made by a front office that has its hands tied.
Parnell McPhee (5-year/$38.75m/$15.5 guaranteed):
With a new defensive scheme come older players best suited
for a 4-3. General Manager Ryan Pace will have his hands full trying to find a
way to add players more suited to defensive coordinator Vic Fangio's 3-4 base
defense. McPhee is a good start. Signed to a five-year $38.75 million deal with
$15.5 million guaranteed, McPhee didn't start any games for Baltimore over the past two seasons, but
managed to register 7.5 sacks in 2014. He is a fast, high-motor end that at
just 26 years-old has a well of untapped potential.
McPhee joins a group of pass rushers that includes Jared Allen and
Willie Young. Both players are more suited for a 4-3 and will see their roles
change dramatically. Allen was against a move to a 3-4 defense in Minnesota, but has said
he is open to it this time around. And it's a good thing, because just like the
Bears are stuck with Cutler for another year, they are also stuck with Allen
and his $12.5 million in dead money.
Eddie Royal (3-year/$15m/$10 guaranteed):
After the deal that sent Brandon Marshall to the Jets the Bears
were left with a big need at wide receiver. Alshon Jeffery is slated to step up
and become the Bears number one, but they would be without a legitimate number
two and three. Eddie Royal presents a stark contrast to the skill set of Alshon
Jeffery and Martellus Bennett. At 5'10" 182 pounds, Royal is a burner that
plays most effectively in the slot. He has nowhere near the up-side that Marshall brings, but put
up similar numbers in 2014. In an injury plagued campaign, Marshall caught 61 balls for 721 yards and 8
touchdowns. Royal hauled in 62 catches for 778 yards and 7 touchdowns. Marshall averaged 11.8 yards
per reception while Royal averaged 12.5. The 28-year-old Royal has a
familiarity with quarterback Jay Cutler. Cutler was in Denver when Royal burst on the scene with a
91-catch 980-yard rookie season. Royal isn't likely to approach those numbers,
but 50-60 receptions and half-dozen touchdowns is a reasonable bet.
The Bears still have a need for another receiver unless they believe
Marquess Wilson and his 6'3" frame can fill the void, that's a blind
wager. I'd expect them to add another veteran free-agent or address the void in
the middle rounds of the draft.
Antrel Rolle (3-years/$11.25m/$10m guaranteed):
At 32-year-old old, Rolle is a football dinosaur. NFL players tend
to burn-out quickly. Look no further than Brian Urlacher and Jared Allen. One
year they are All-Pro caliber, the next they look like a shell of themselves.
The good news for the Bears is Rolle does not play on the line and doesn’t take
the beating that those players did. Rolle is not an in-the-box safety. His
strength is manning center field and ball hawking. Rolle has nine interceptions
over the past two seasons and wore a captain patch on some very good Giants
defenses. After Marc Trestman's bizarre "different captain every
week" strategy, bringing in a veteran presence that commands respect from
his peers is an essential addition to a young defense that often times looks
confused and out of place. And that's the big reason he is here. What the Bears
get in on-field production is of secondary concern to the leadership they are
adding. From a production standpoint, Rolle is stepping into some very small
shoes left behind from Chris Conte, so at worst a lateral step is worth the
addition.
The Bears have a long way to go toward making sweeping changes. They
are saddled with some bad contracts and no other team is willing to take on theBears burden. The front office added some veteran leadership, a new style but
similar production at wide receiver and the first piece to a rebuilt pass rush.
Spending on big free agents is a good way to make a quick fix, which is exactly
what the Bears don't need. They need to wait out a couple of the bad contracts
and then make the changes needed to wipe the slate clean.
Kyle Schwarber is going to catch because he has to catch.
Unless… there’s a catch (sorry, couldn’t help myself). The Cubs first round
pick in the 2014 draft carries a big left handed stick and questions about
where he can play on the field. That doesn’t sit well with Schwarber. And the
Cubs are glad it doesn’t.
"It really fucking pisses me off when
people say I can't catch."
Taken out of Indiana University with the 4th
overall pick, the Cubs left some draft experts scratching their head. They wondered
how can Theo choose another bat for a system that already has Baez, Bryant,
Soler, Almora and Alcantara but no top end pitching. Schwarber quickly put
those critics to bed with a breakout first season in the Cubs organization that
saw him rise to high A-ball and crush opposing pitchers to a .302/.393/.952
slash line.
All the preseason prospect rankings took notice as well.
Landing in the top 100 of every list and reaching as high as 19 on the list
composed by Baseball America.
Schwarder has an elite bat and it comes from the left side. That is invaluable
around the league, but unheard of at the catching position. Given the Cubs’
wealth of young bats it benefits both the Cubs and Schwarber to stay put on
defense, that is, until he has to.
The Cubs currently have seven infielders in the “system” and
only four spots for them. Rizzo is stuck at first along with Russell and Castro
penciled in for short and third. The hope is Baez will pan out at second and if
he doesn’t, Alcantara might. Then there’s the third base conundrum. Mike Olt is
likely to get the start at third to begin the season. Olt has been very steady
in spring and looks more comfortable and confident than we’ve seen of him in a
Cubs uniform. Kris Bryant is the crown jewel of the system and could take over
third base as soon as late April. However, Bryant’s destiny may be in left
field because Jorge Soler is entrenched in right and neither Bryant nor
Schwarber can play center.
If everything goes according to plan, there is nowhere for
Schwarber to play but catcher. And the Cubs are willing to wait on his bat to
make it happen. Schwarber has shown an impressive amount of work ethic and
determination to improve his receiving abilities. That’s a big reason why the
Cubs “reached” to grab him at four. They love his makeup and leadership. From a
personality standpoint, he is everything they want in a catcher.
However, there is one catch, as mentioned earlier. The collectivebargaining agreement expires after the 2016 season. With interleague play
underway every day of the regular season, there is no doubt the players union
will be pushing for a national league designated hitter. A DH in the national
league evens out the rules and puts 15 more high priced players without a
defensive home into the union’s coffers. Do not overlook the power of the MLBPA
in this regard.
If this change happens, then the Cubs can rest easy and use
Schwarber as their version of David Ortiz (sorry for the Red Sox comparison,
but it’s just so damn relevant). But if the ‘ol boy’s club of Major League
Baseball is able to ward off these changes, then the Cubs will need Schwarber
to catch, and need it badly.
That was the message sent
from Bears General Manager Ryan Pace and head coach John Fox when they
introduced new defensive end Pernell McPhee at Halas Hall. The new Bears hierarchy
is bringing along a part of the past as they try to rebuild for the future.
Signed to a massive seven-year $126.7 million offer ($54M guaranteed)
by the old boss, the new boss found him nearly impossible to trade. And despite
what they say, he tried. Combine his inconsistent play, nonchalant demeanor,
whispers about being difficult for coaches and teammates to work with and you
get a few shoppers, but nobody is buying. What makes the lack of interest in
Cutler so telling is the weak corps of draft picks and free agents at the position.
Teams looking to upgrade the most important position on the field with nowhere
else to turn still had no interest in Cutler.
Pace’s announcement
seemed like a captor reading his own ransom letter, rather than a general
standing behind his troops.
“We went
through a process of thoroughly evaluating the roster. We're moving forward
with Jay Cutler as our starting quarterback.”
Not exactly a
ringing endorsement and it shouldn’t be. Jay is “signed” through the 2020
season, but the Bears can release him after 2016 with minimal damage. With 18
interceptions in 2014, Cutler led the NFL tied with longtime nemesis Phillip Rivers.
He showed an inability to recognize and avoid pressure. The improvement to
Cutler’s game simply hasn’t been what it should be for a player of his skill set
entering his 10th season.
The money isn’t
the problem with Jay. Play at the quarterback position around the league is at
a pretty low level. With the old guard of Manning and Brady coming to an end
and nobody but Andrew Luck t fill that hole, there are a plethora of teams that
could use a top 15ish quarterback. Most of those teams would be willing to pay
the $15-16 million a year for a three year try.
So the Bears
are stuck with Jay for another year. And they are stuck with a bit of the old
culture lingering around the clubhouse. But there’s a salary cap in the NFL and
the Bears really can’t release him and eat the money without it having a
negative impact on improving other positions. If they eat Jay’s money, then
they are paying him and another starter. That other starter is a defensive
lineman or linebacking depth. It’s a safety or extra help on the offensive
line. That’s a trade the Bears can’t make no matter how indifferent they are to
Cutler, especially if they want to truly rebuild this roster.
If rumors are to be believed, the Bears are shopping JayCutler and have interest in 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick. While the Bears
are undergoing a rebuild under a new front office and coaching staff along with
the loss of longtime staples Lance Briggs and Charles Tillman, the 49ers are similarly
searching for a new identity after the loss of Jim Harbaugh, Frank Gore and
Patrick Willis. It’s no secret the Bears planned to explore trade options with
Cutler, but news that San Francisco
is considering parting ways with Kaepernick comes as a bit of a surprise.
This year’s free agent class and draft class are incredibly
weak at the quarterback position, and if the Bears are going to find a taker
for Cutler’s money that may play in their favor. The same could be said for the
49ers. With few viable options available, the 49ers may be able to get a king’s
ransom for a 27-year-old conference winning signal caller. I went into this
piece thinking the best route for the Bears is to avoid Kaepernick at all
costs, even if it means at least one more season of Cutler. But after sorting
through pages of contracts and statistics, it began to look like a move that
makes sense for the Bears.
Stat Comparison:
Cutler and Kaepernick are relatively similar from a
statistical standpoint. Kaepernick has only started two and a half NFL seasons,
while Cutler has nine seasons under his belt. (For the sake of consistency
these numbers will represent the 2012-2014 seasons.). But over the course of
the last three seasons, Kaepernick has put up comparable, if not better
numbers.
From 2012-2014, here is a list of how Cutler and Kaepernick
compare in a variety of categories:
Completion Percentage
(three season average):
Cutler: 60.43
Kaepernick: 62.63
Yards:
Cutler: 9,466
Kaepernick: 8,380
Touchdowns:
Cutler: 66
Kaepernick: 50
Interceptions:
Cutler: 44
Kaepernick: 21
Yards Per Catch
(three season average):
Cutler: 11.3
Kaepernick: 12.7
QB Rating (three year
average):
Cutler: 86.36
Kaepernick: 92.1
While Cutler leads in yards and touchdowns, Kaepernick has
fewer than half the interceptions, throws for a higher completion percentage and
has a high QB Rating. Add in Kaepernick’s mobility and the argument starts to
shift considerably. In two-and-a-half seasons as a starter Kaepernick has run
259 times for 1,578 yards. Cutler has run 103 times for 542 yards. By no means
am I the type to argue in favor of a rushing quarterback. I have yet to see one
win a Super Bowl and until that happens, I will be a doubter. However, with
Cutler at the helm, sacks have been a major issue. There is no doubt the Bears
offered Cutler subpar offensive lines throughout his tenure, but the last two
seasons weren’t nearly as bad as the seasons prior. Cutler also has the tendency
to hold on to the ball too long and step into rather than away from pressure.
Increased mobility that could be offered by Kaepernick may help alleviate that
issue, thus making the offensive line more productive. Yes, Kaepernick was
sacked an alarming 52 times last season, but Cutler also suffered a 52 sack
season in 2010 when the Bears were one win from a Super Bowl.
Contract:
The biggest obstacle blocking a trade of Cutler is his
inflated contract. Jay is guaranteed $15.5 million next season and another $10
million the season after if he is on the roster past Thursday. Kaepernick has a
base of $10.4 million this season with a $15.27 million cap hit and roughly
$9.9 million in dead money. After this season, Cutler’s dead money shrinks to
$6 million, while Kaepernick’s is $14.79 million. Both players become free
agents after the 2020 season, but the dead money is off both deals after the 2018
campaign. From 2015-2018 Cutler is owed a total (both guaranteed and non-guaranteed)
$66.5 million, while Kaepernick would cost $71.26. Factor in that Kaepernick is
four years younger than Cutler and again, the scale tips a slight bit toward
Kaepernick.
Leadership:
One of the biggest knocks against Cutler is his locker room
and on-field leadership. He is not a vocal type and has rubbed a number of
teammates and coaches the wrong way over the course of his career. I’ve spoken
personally to a number of former teammates that off-the-record would tell me
what they really thought of Jay as a teammate. Let me tell you, it’s not good.
Kaepernick can be an odd dude as well. But if what the Bears are looking for is
a complete culture change in the locker room, then a move from Cutler to Kaepernick
would make a great deal of sense.
The Verdict:
All things being equal I’d take Kaepernick over Cutler given
the position the Bears are in. While I keep hearing the word “potential” used
with Jay, he is 31-years-old and what you see at this point, is pretty much
what you get. Some of that harvestable potential may still exist in Kaepernick.
While he is far from a great quarterback, he would be a fine place holder for a
couple seasons, and that’s something Jay can’t be at this point. Not after the
rumors of the front office wanting him gone and the separation from his
favorite target in Brandon Marshall.
If the Bears could find a way to deal Cutler and flip a
similar package for Kaepernick it would be the wise move to make. But
Kaepernick is likely to cost a lot more. And if there is a huge gap in the
asking price, the difference between the two is simply not worth it.
As the Cubs competitive window inches open I can feel the
stress of expectation in some fans. A simple look at twitter following a Cactus
League loss or a Javier Baez strikeout and it’s clear that after years of
losing, Cub fans are eager to watch a winner. As painful as it may be to heed
advice from someone wearing green and gold, Cubs faithful need to follow Aaron
Rodgers’ lead and “R-E-L-A-X”.
The 2015 Cubs will be a much improved ball club. After three
years spent tearing down the organization to build it back up, Theo Epstein and
Jed Hoyer are finally at the point where they can worry about the big league
club. They told us the plan the day they held their first press conference, and
haven’t wavered from it since. This organization needed more than just a
rebuilt roster. It needed rebuild facilities in Mesa, Chicago and across the
minor league system. It needed a rebuilt farm system that had failed to produce
meaningful big league talent for decades. It needed a rebuilt international
scouting department that could focus on the wealth of talent outside the
country’s borders. It even needed e-mail and a few people that speak Spanish.
This was one of the largest teardowns of an American professional sports
franchise that I can remember. And it was absolutely necessary.
The Cubs brass told fans they would be active in free agency
when the time was right, and the 2014-2015 offseason proved
to be that time. The addition of veterans Jon Lester, Miguel Montero, David
Ross, Dexter Fowler and Jason Hammel give the Cubs some much needed veteran
presence, but they are still an incredibly young team. The Cubs front office
has identified a player’s prime as 27-32 years old. And most of these Cubs have
a while to go before reaching the lower end of that age range. Point being,
that the Sporting News may be at least a couple years premature in their
prediction of the Cubs reaching the promise land.
That got me thinking about the average age of World Series
winning teams. While doing some research I came across another Sporting News article.
One that was written three years ago, but had some very relevant information as
it pertained to my questions. In the
piece, Bo Mitchell from Sports Data figured the average age of starters for
each position for Championship teams over a 25-year span (1986-2011). As
expected, the Cubs are still kids compared to these averages:
Catcher:
Average World Series
winner: 28.6
Cubs projected starter: Miguel
Montero: 31.2
First Base:
Average World Series
winner: 29.1
Cubs projected starter: Anthony
Rizzo: 25.2
Second base:
Average World Series
winner: 27.9
Cub’s possible starters:
Javier Baez: 22.1
Arismendy Alcantara:
23.1
Tommy LaStella: 26
Third Base:
Average World Series
winner: 30.1
Cub’s possible starters:
Mike Olt: 26.2
Kris Bryant: 23.1
Short Stop:
Average World Series
winner: 27.9
Cubs projected starter: Starlin
Castro: 24.4
Outfield:
Average World Series
winner: 29.9
Cubs projected starter:
Dexter Fowler: 28.4
Jorge Soler: 23
Chris Coghlan: 29.3
Denorfia: 34.2
Starting Pitcher:
Average World Series
winner: 29.6
Cubs projected starters:
Jon Lester: 31.1
Jake Arrieta: 29
Jason Hammel: 32.2
Kyle Hendricks: 25.1
Travis Wood: 28
Edwin Jackson: 31.2
Tsuyoshi Wada: 34
Jacob Turner: 23.3
Felix Doubront: 27.1
Closer:
Average World Series
winner: 29.8
Cubs projected closer: Hector
Rondon: 27
While age, by no means,
determines the success of a team or player, it’s a pretty good gauge for when most
players reach their statistical peak. As you can see, the Cubs are very young,
coming in years below the average age of a World Series starter at nearly every
position. This is not to say the Cubs youngsters can’t put together an historic
year and over perform their projections. Or that this particular group of
players won’t be ahead of the curve when it relates to adjustments to life in
the big leagues. What it does is point out just how silly the timing is on
championship predictions as we head into 2015, especially considering this core
is likely to be together for years to come.
The Cubs farm system has
been evaluated by many experts as historically strong. The promotions of
Alcantara, Soler and Baez last season is the tip of the iceberg. Over the next
two to three seasons the team will call up more highly touted prospects in Kris
Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, Albert Almora and CJ Edwards. All of
these guys will play a prominent role in the organization, either as Cubs or
used in trades and sent elsewhere. What the Cubs have that previous top ranked
systems rarely do, is major market money. This will allow the Cubs to fix any
holes from prospects that don’t pan out, or buy the pitching that is needed to
compliment the young talented core of bats.
This is year one of what
the team is planning on being a long, consistent string of competitive seasons.
This year is the Cubs learning to crawl before they can walk. There will be
growing pains, disappointments, slumps and losing streaks. There may not be a
playoff birth. This isn’t the Cubs of the ‘80’s where the competitive window is
open for one season then it’s back to the cellar. Over the next 5-10 seasons
this team will have chances to do something great. However, this season it is
not World Series or bust. So don’t let the stress get to you. Instead, enjoy a much
improved team learn how to win on a consistent basis. That’s something Cub fans
have rarely been able to do.
It’s not often a general manager trades his most talented
player and is universally lauded for it. That’s the position Bears GM Ryan Pace
has put himself in. Brandon Marshall entered Chicago with a bang and is leaving for the New York Jets with a whimper. And he has nobody to blame but himself
for yet another move.
Marshall is arguably the most talent wide receiver to wear
the Bears navy blue and burnt orange. He was brought in at the request of
quarterback Jay Cutler with full knowledge that he suffers mental problems with
a long history of violent and narcissistic tendencies. During his first season
with the Bears under Lovie Smith, Marshall seemed to have his problems under
control. A vocal advocate for mental health, Marshall was willing to tell his story
and flaunt his personal changes. But with a change in leadership under Marc
Trestman, came a lack of accountability with Marshall and the rest of the Bears
roster.
The Bears were not pleased that Marshall decided to fly to New
York on a weekly basis to do an NFL show, but they didn’t tell him no. They
allowed Marshall to hold a long, convoluted press conference detailing his
history of domestic violence. They laughed it off when he challenged a twitter
follower to a boxing match. And despite being the player that made the most
noise in a loud and dysfunctional clubhouse, it was Marshall that entered the
locker room with t-shirts that read “No Noise”, and passed them out to his
quieter and more focused teammates.
In just three seasons Marshall ranks 8th all-time
in Chicago Bears history in receptions (3rd among full-time WRs
behind Marty Booker and Curtis Conway), 11th in receiving yards (5th
among full-time WRs) and 7th in receiving TDs (3rd among
full-time WRs). By trading Marshall, they are moving the first legit number one
receiver the team has had in generations. They are moving a guy that could
overtake those leaderboards in a few seasons. They are trading the most
talented player on the 53 man roster.
The move will give the Bears some extra financial breathing
room to target free agents. There is an obvious need to rebuild the defense in
new coordinator Vic Fangio’s image. But make no mistake; this trade is not
about the football or the money. This move is all about silencing the noise
that became such a distraction under Trestman.
Pace will now focusing on finding a replacement for
Marshall. That is likely not going to come with Marshall’s production. And the
numbers he was able to put up are something the Bears could badly use. But that
doesn’t matter anymore. What matters is that Pace is fulfilling his promise to
construct a roster where the best players are the best leaders. Saying goodbye
to Lance Briggs and Brandon Marshall is a pivotal first step in achieving that
vision. And are choices that likely leaves quarterback Jay Cutler looking over
his under-burdened shoulder. Pace made the difficult football decision, instead choosing to do what is right, ridding the organization of a deal the Bears made with the devil.
A number of questions remain. Is Alshon Jeffery capable of
being a number one receiver? Will the Bears fill the void by addressing wide
receiver with a high draft pick or will it be the trade route or a free agent
signing? But one thing is clear. The Bears have a new man in charge and he is
flexing his muscles and showing the leadership off the field that the franchise
lacked so badly on it over the last two seasons.
It’s the end of a defensive era in Chicago Bears football. Lovie
Smith’s dominant Cover-2 defense has found its final resting place. Yes, it
feels like it’s been gone a while, but it wasn't. The last two seasons the
defense was in hospice, and we were forced to watch the long goodbye.
When the Bears fired Smith following the 2012 season, left
behind were Lance Briggs, Charles Tillman and Smith’s playbook. When the team
hired Mel Tucker as defensive coordinator, the job came with that playbook, and
he was required to use it. And Tucker did just that. What Tucker was left with
was the remains of an ancient ruin.
News that the Bears will not bring Briggs back and are
likely to see Tillman elsewhere in 2015 is symbolic of the defensive overhaul needed
at Halas Hall. Tillman and Briggs were great Bears. Together with Brian Urlacher
they led a defense that ranked in the top five in the league three times and a
Super Bowl birth with Rex Grossman under center. But with age and injuries
comes ineffectiveness.
New defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio is bringing along with
him a 3-4 defense. It’s not a system Briggs and Tillman can excel in and by
saying goodbye to the old guard; the Bears can usher in a new era.
The 3-4 will open up a new well of options for obtaining a
pass rush. No longer will the front office be tied to hand-on-ground defensive
ends. Now they can look at the smaller, faster outside linebackers that fit in
a 3-4. It’s a defense that is predicated on spreading the pressure around by
using a variety of blitz packages.
It will be a shame to see Briggs and Tillman not patrolling the
sidelines for the first time in 12 years. And it’s an even bigger shame that
they along with Urlacher will never wear a Bears Super Bowl ring. However, Lovie’s
era in Chicago
is one to be respected. He brought back a long hibernated defensive power house
that made the league take notice. His era wasn’t always pretty and there’s a
whiff of “what could have been”, but ultimately he did a fine job.
Now it’s time for a rebuild. A new defensive scheme is coming;
a new front office is calling the shots and word that the team is shopping Brandon Marshall shows Pace and company are looking for a cultural shift as well. And
after the last two seasons, that is something that should relieve Bears fans.
Javier Baez needs to change his swing, and the Cubs are working
hard to accomplish that. When Baez first arrived in Mesa, he told Jesse Rogers
with ESPN radio that the changes he plans to make are based on timing, but now
it seems the Cubs are asking him to address specific swing mechanics.
I've
gone in depthinto the need
for Baez to adjust his approach. But now that we knowwhat exactlythe Cubs coaching staff is asking him
to target, we can go a little deeper into why the changes are needed.
Much of what Baez needs to work on mirror's
another former Cub power hitter in Sammy Sosa. Before Jeff Pentland came aboard
as the Cubs hitting Coach in 1997, Sosa had a very different looking stance. He
held his hands high, causing more movement in his upper body in order to get
into a proper hitting position. By keeping the hands up, the hitter's head will
move down as he brings his hands down. This causes a change in eye level and
sight lines as the ball is being delivered. Pentland convinced Sosa to bring
his hands down to letter height.
While there is little doubt Sosa's
breakout season in 1998 was helped greatly by is "Flintstone
Vitamins", it's also when Sosa made changes to his stance and timing. And
while there is no way to pinpoint when Sosa started taking his
"vitamins", we can pinpoint a significant difference in his
performance directly after the changes were made. One specific change the Cubs
want Baez to make is his hands. They want his hands to come down and forward, just
like whet Pentland did with Sosa. As you can see, Baez starts his hands in a
similar position which in turn makes for a wildly moving upper body as
he begins his swing.
As for the bottom half of the body, Sosa
also went through massive changes and Baez will have to do the same. One of
Sosa's biggest problems in his pre-1998 days was timing. Sosa was frequently
ahead of fastballs and couldn't recognize breaking balls. By adding a hitch to Sosa's step,
he was able to wait back better on off-speed offerings while staying behind
fastballs. That hitch came in the form of a little step back with his front
foot. As you can see in this 1993 at-bat against Greg Maddux, Sosa did not yet
have that hitch.
And here is Sosa with his timing
mechanism.
Baez has a different leg problem than
Sosa. While Sammy had a minor leg kick before his changes, Baez has a heavily
pronounced one. When this is added to the movement needed in his upper body, it
creates a swing that is often out of control. The Cubs are asking Baez to cut
down on that step, particularly on two strike counts. The idea being that a
solid base will limit movement and allow him to wait back, similar to what the
extra hitch did for Sosa.
These changes will not be easy for a 22-year-old who tends to get over excited during games. That rush of adrenaline
may result in reverting to what feels natural. And one of the hardest changes
to make in the batter’s box is to divert from what feels right.
Baez is very young and will have a lot of
growing pains as he adjusts to big league pitching. But adopting these changes
may have monumental results. By being proactive, the Cubs are taking the right
approach in not letting his bad habits stick around.
I'm back writing on my
own site for the time being, and I have nothing but my stupid conscience to
blame. The big talk in Chicago sports all weekend was not the Bulls falling at
home and losing another all-star in the process, or Stan Bowman cashing in his
future chips to win the hand he now has. No, the big talk was all about who the
longest tenured Blackhawk is shacking up with. The
website I was writing for was at the center of the controversy after publishing
a piece under an alias author that went into specific detail of Patrick Sharp's
off-ice exploits. The piece noted a number of what were referred to as
"heavily vetted" anonymous sources then ran a list of women Sharp was
rumored to be sexually involved with.
I'm
always uncomfortable with these types of stories. Simply because a person has a
unique skill that allows them to perform in front of millions of interested
fans does not give us the right to know what goes on in their home. This counts
for athletes, musicians, actors, actresses and anyone else who work high
exposure jobs.
Criticize,
speculate and spread rumor all you'd like when it comes to aspects of the job,
but the family is off limits, especially without any hard evidence. And if you
do choose to cross the line between sports column and gossip column, then the
person who is the center of the attack should at least know who is writing the
piece.
To me,
there is a big difference between reporting "personal conflicts in the
locker room" and reporting specific individual relationships. Even if
these rumors are true, they are not based on any illegal activity, all
participants were willing and it is an issue to be resolved between a man and
his family, not in the public eye. And I'm sorry, but being good at hockey does
not give us the right to know unless the involved parties wants us to know.
Maybe
he biggest part of the problem is that the demand for such gossip and
speculation. At last check, this particular piece had nearly 300,000 people
click on it. That's from a local sports blog. And it's not a surprise. Our
culture is incredibly voyeuristic. It's why reality television is so poupular.
The average citizen may enjoy looking in on the lifestyles of the rich and
famous, but unless we are invited in, we are really just "creepy Rob Lowe",
sitting in a tree with binoculars. And while some may be using that
approach to generate interest, it is something that I, as a professional
news and sports broadcaster, cannot be a part of. I have no hard feelings with those who run the site. They have been very kind and professional to me, and I
wish them all the best. But sometimes life presents you with a tough choice: do
what's best for you or do what's right. And I strive so hard for the latter. We
don't know for sure what happened with Patrick Sharp. If there was an incident
with a teammate it happened behind closed doors and neither he, nor any of the
women involved offered us the chance to peek. That is their right to keep their
lives off the ice private. A family is a very delicate proposition. Life can be
messy and the hurdles we face in cleaning up those messes can be very complex.
And it is not helped by hearsay and public shaming.
So
instead of being a part of the gossip columns, I'm going to keep my sports
thoughts, speculation and rumor on the field. I'll be writing for me, for you
and not for money or clicks.