Chisports

Chisports

Friday, February 13, 2015

White Sox Face Big Rotation Decisions

The White Sox have some hard decisions looming when it comes to the starting rotation. The addition of Jeff Samardzija gives the Sox arguably the best righty-lefty combo of any rotation in the big leagues. But that could be short lived unless Jerry Reinsdorf is willing to open the checkbook.

While the Sox can’t be compared to the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers when it comes to spending, the team has shown a willingness to open the coffers when necessary. Since 2006 the Sox have had an average payroll of $107.35 million, topping out at $127.8 in 2011. That’s a nice chunk of cash, but would likely have to go up if they plan to keep Samardzija and Sale long term.  When Sale becomes a free agent at the age of 29 in 2019 the Sox will need at least $25 million a year to keep him. So on the low end of the salary expectations, that leaves two players eating up nearly 40% of the Sox payroll.

Samardzija is set to become a free agent and all signs have pointed to his desire to test the market. Shark certainly ranks behind Zimmermann and Price in the 2016 class and is likely to command a lesser deal than those two, but an offer in the Jon Lester range (6 years $155 million) would not be far-fetched. When it comes to extending Samardzija the White Sox have a few things working in their favor. He is a lifelong Sox fan from northwest Indiana. He is comfortable in Chicago and with the limelight of the Chicago media. Most importantly, the Sox have Sale locked up for five more seasons at a bargain compared to other aces. They also have big money from the John Danks contract coming off the books after the 2016 season.

At 31 years-old entering his free agent year, this is not only Samardzija’s first opportunity to cash in on a monster deal, it’s also likely his last. Sox can look at the $15.75 million coming off the books from Danks and apply that to an extension for Shark, but they also have an escalating contract with Jose Quintana that sits at a lowly $3.5 million this year, increasing to nearly $9 million by 2018 plus an extra $22 million combined in team options in 2019 and 2020, so that will also eat up some of those savings.

Rick Hahn has done a wonderful job of adding impact talent at a discounted price. Veterans like Adam LaRoache and Melky Cabrera are likely to play above their contract numbers in relation to peers around the league. Add in an MVP candidate in Jose Abreu with a cost controlled contract and the Sox have clearly left themselves some wiggle room.

Perhaps the best course of action for Hahn is to hope the Sox go on an extended post season run and appeal to Samardzija’s highly competitive nature and tug at his heart strings to convince him to sign in the 4 year or 5 year range at $25 aav. But if the decision ultimately comes down to choosing between Samardzija now and Sale later, even if Samardzija means four extra seasons of both anchoring the rotation, I don’t see how they can choose Samardzija. 

Thursday, February 12, 2015

Hamels May be Worth Sitting Out '15 FA Class for Cubs

News that the Cubs were the runners-up in the James Shields derby left many fans and pundits looking at what top of the rotation arm the Cubs can add next. The name that continually comes up is Phillies ace Cole Hamels. There is no doubt the Cubs have the assets to acquire the three time all-star. The question that Theo and Jed will have to answer is if the cost of Hamels outweighs the other options that will become available over the next year.

Hamels will be expensive, not just in cash, but in prospects. The free agent class of 2015 is loaded with top line starting pitchers. Nationals ace Jordan Zimmermann, former Cy Young winner David Price and former Cub and new White Sox hurler Jeff Samardzija are all slated to become free agents. The 7 year $210 million deal Max Scherzer signed with the Nationals will serve as a jumping off point for all three of these pitchers.

Zimmermann is the cream of the crop. He will be entering the 2016 season at just 29 years old while Price will be 30 and Samardzija 31. Price has the hardware but it’s Zimmerman who has put up the more dominant numbers over the last two seasons. While Samardzija is older, he has the shortest track record of the trio as he broke into the bigs in the bullpen.

Hamels is easily in the same echelon as the three mentioned. A career 3.27 ERA, 3.48 FIP and an average 4.4 WAR per season is nearly lock-step with Zimmerman (3.24, 3.31, 4.03), Price (3.21, 3.27, 3.8) and Samardzija (3.85, 3.73, 4.33). For the sake of accuracy, the WAR average includes only the seasons these guys were full-time starters.

While Zimmerman and Price could easily command eight years and $200 million plus, Hamels is owed a guaranteed $94 million over 4 years with a vesting option that can top the contract out at 5 years $118. The Cubs 3 year $60 million offer to James Shields shows that while there are still salary constraints, they have the money to add a $20 million per year pitcher. A commitment that is half in length and money seems like a no brainer. With big money owed Jon Lester over the next six seasons (seven with the option) the Cubs can minimize their risk with a shorter deal. This is part of what was so enticing about James Shields and his plummeting demands. However, it isn’t money that makes up the real value of a deal for Hamels.

Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has shown no interest in softening his high demands for Hamels. Rumors had Amaro asking for three top of the line, ready for MLB prospects in return. That is an asking price few teams outside the Cubs can meet. The Cubs have two players that the Phillies are said to have interest in that are young MLB veterans in catcher Wellington Castillo and pitcher Travis Wood. The Cubs have been known to be shopping both of them during the off season. While that is not nearly enough for Amaro, it could help ease the request for a second or third top farm hand. The Cubs would still have to give up elite talent on top of that.

It’s believed that Addison Russell is that centerpiece that Amaro covets. That is not likely to happen. The Cubs are incredibly high on the shortstop that Billy Beane has called the next Barry Larkin. The more realistic option for both parties is Javier Baez. The last first round pick of the Jim Hendry era, Baez has prodigious power and absolute superstar quality bat speed. He can play multiple positions and has a ceiling as high as anyone in baseball. But contact issues that plagued Baez in his half-season stint in the bigs last year is minor cause for concern.

Baez no longer qualifies as a prospect, but his value is every bit as high as it was a year ago when he ranked among the top ten in the league. The addition of Russell affords the Cubs a great deal of depth and options. Heading into the 2014 season the idea of trading Baez was ludicrous, but with Russell in toe, it’s an asset they can afford to let go for the right price. Though that value is still immense, holding on to Baez in an effort to make a mid-season deal is a gamble. If he falters in the first half of 2015 the way he did in 2014, his value could decrease significantly and his return wouldn’t bring near the talent of Cole Hamels. This is where the rebuilt scouting and development department under Epstein will really be tested. The dilemma facing the Cubs is if the shorter commitment in money and years for Hamels is worth the cost of seeing Baez become a superstar in Philadelphia.  


I can see a scenario where the Cardinals, who are said to have interest, come close to a deal for Hamels the Cubs then jump in and out muscle them. Barring that scenario, I expect the Cubs to wait it out and if they are in contention in July revisit the possibility of a trade.  

Wednesday, February 11, 2015

Adults Acting Like Children in Little League Scandal

Rarely in sports does the losing team come out as the only winners. That’s the case with the decision by Little league to strip Chicago’s Jackie Robinson West All-Stars of the U.S. Championship.

The League’s first all African-American team to win a title is being stripped of that honor after it was found the coaches were using players from outside the drawn district. It’s a storyline straight out of “The Mighty Ducks” or perhaps a twisted version of “Peter Pan”, where the adults refuse to grow up.

Let’s be very clear, the coaches for Jackie Robinson West cheated. They bent the rules in order to field a far more skilled team by cherry picking the top little league talent from around Chicago’s south side. There is no question there should be punishments. Coaches should be fired, suspended or expelled from the league. But what we’ve seen from Las Vegas coach Ashton Cave following his team’s loss in the championship game is akin to a spoiled child throwing a tantrum when he loses.

Cave called out the Jackie Robinson West squad to anyone and everyone that would listen. Now that whistle blowing tantrum has resulted in a championship for him and a confusing and conflicted title for his players. Those kids on the Las Vegas team are now technically champions, but they didn’t get to storm the field after a win. They didn’t get to celebrate the way they see their MLB heroes do on the middle of the diamond. They didn’t get the trip to the White House and get to be paraded around the city. They didn’t get the thrill of victory through a hard fought series of games. They didn’t get to wake up the next morning and look in the mirror and say “we did it”. They didn’t get to battle the team from South Korea for the world championship. Those are the real perks that come along with winning and you’d have to excuse the Las Vegas kids if they don’t really feel like champions.

As for the kids from the JRW program, they did get those perks. They have been champions since the final out of that ballgame in August. Those kids took the field and battled against all challengers and came out on top despite being heavy underdogs in a number of games. They may have been technically stripped of that championship, but they know what they accomplished and no bureaucratic sanction can take that away.


This whole scandal is a microcosm of a larger problem in our society. Adults acting like children when the kids are trying to play a game. Coaches bending rules, parents throwing tantrums and playing time being heavily slanted to the most talented kids. I’m not just talking about the travel leagues and all-star leagues; I’m talking about all youth sports. Parents and coaches acting like college recruiters and angry fans have no place in youth sports. It sets a terrible example for kids that are supposed to be using the experience to learn about teamwork, unity, fair play and exercise. Youth sports are supposed to be fun, not stressful. And if you disagree then you can go ahead and shift your focus to the pro leagues. After all, that’s what they are for.  

Tuesday, February 10, 2015

News and Notes from around Chicago Baseball

Baseball Prospectus has released its annual top 101 prospects list and Chicago is heavily represented. The Cubs land 7 players on the list while the White Sox nab two spots.

The first thing that jumps off the list is the ranking of shortstop Addison Russell as the #2 prospect in all of baseball, while Kris Bryant lands at number 5. Bryant has been a consensus top two prospect on lists released by ESPN and MLB.com (Baseball America has yet to release its list but Bryant is likely to land in the top 2). Bryant ranking so low and Russell so high speaks to the premium Baseball Prospectus places on plus defenders at prime positions. Bryant is viewed as an average third baseman that is likely to play a large chunk of his career at a corner outfield spot, while Russell has all the tools to excel anywhere on the field, but most importantly, at short.  It’s hard for me to get too worked up about Bryant’s number five ranking even though he took home nearly every minor league award he could last season. Having two top 5 prospects in all of baseball is a great luxury and one that Cub fans should enjoy rather than get worked up about where in those top five they land.

The other noticeable part of the list from a Cubs prospective is the absence of CJ Edwards and the presence of Pierce Johnson. Edwards struggled through injuries during 2014 and has slipped on nearly everyone’s list, but still ranks in the top 50 for mlb.com. Edwards’ slight build is something that concerns the BP staff and is likely the reason for his exclusion. The crew at BP also slotted outfielder Billy McKinney in the list, making them the only publication to do so. Though it should be noted that McKinney has been mentioned by some of the other prospect rankings as being just outside the top 100.

Here are the final rankings for the Cubs on the list:

2. Addison Russell
5. Kris Bryant
19. Jorge Soler
38. Albert Almora
77. Kyle Schwarber
81. Billy McKinney
83. Pierce Johnson

Baseball Prospectus and Jim Callis of mlb.com have differing views of the White Sox top prospects. Callis ranked lefty Carlos Rodon as the number 14 prospect in all of baseball while BP has him all the way down at 41. You can reverse that thinking for middle infield prospect Tim Anderson who is ranked number 39 by BP and 76 by Callis. The viewpoints are so varied that BP has Anderson as the better prospect than 2014 first round pick Rodon.

Here’s some other news from around Chicago baseball:

--- Former Cub Tony Campana’s career on the south side may be over before it began. The speedy outfielder tore his ACL during workouts effectively ending his season. It’s not a huge loss for the White Sox as Camapana wasn’t guaranteed a roster spot to begin with, but losing that speed is one less option for late game substitutions for Robin Ventura.

--- New Cubs centerfielder Dexter Fowler has been working out with Barry Bonds this off season. Anyone who has ever had a discussion about baseball with me knows how I loathe Bonds as a person. I find him to be a selfish narcissist and a cheater to boot. However, there are far worse guys Fowler can get pointers from. Bonds is one of the smartest hitters in baseball history. That counts for his career both before and after steroids. Bonds imparting his knowledge on Fowler is fine by me, as long as he keeps his pharmacist, trainer and crappy attitude away.

--- The Score’s Bruce Levine wrote about the Cubs possibly pursing Cole Hamels through trade after missing out on James Shields. Unless Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. is told by ownership to drop the asking price, I don’t see this happening. This may change come July if the Cubs are still in contention. Remember, the Cubs pursuit of Shields wasn’t as much about the necessary need to add to the top of the rotation as much as it was about finding a great deal on a player whose value dropped dramatically in free agency.

Monday, February 9, 2015

Cubs right in hard line offer to Shields

Pitcher James Shields is staying home after turning down the Cubs to sign a 4-year deal with the San Diego Padres. The cubs were late entrants into the Shields derby deciding to make an offer when the 33-year-old right hander's price dropped dramatically.

The Cubs drew a hard line in their offer to "Big Game James". Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports the Cubs final offer to Shields was for roughly $60 million. Speculation is that included a 3-year deal with a 4th year option. That is a far cry from Shield's initial 5-year $110 million asking price. It's also exactly where that line should have been drawn.

As I had mentioned in an earlier post, a $15 million average is a price that is easy to swallow for a number two starter at Shields' age. It would have allowed the Cubs to upgrade their rotation now and still stay relevant for next season's big free agent class. Anything more than that is simply not smart for a guy who is likely to start a sharp decline in the second or third year of that deal.

It would have been easy to look at the momentum built by this off season and the chance to become the favorite in the central and up the offer, but the Cubs front office showed a great deal of restraint and discipline. Shields was the right pitcher for the Cubs. He would have fit into the new clubhouse culture well and has a successful track record with manager Joe Maddon. But that only holds true at the right price.

The Cubs can now take the same approach they did with money left over from the failed bid for Japanese hurler Masahiro Tanaka, which they put toward the Jon Lester contract. Theo and Jed will have an extra $60 million in the bank to throw at Jordan Zimmerman or David Price next off season, or use for a mid season trade if the team is competitive and need an extra arm. A July pursuit of Phillies ace Cole Hamels could also resurface mid season.

So now it's back to the "quantity over quality" approach for the final spot in the rotation. The Cubs have a handful of options to fill that role led by former All-Star (though coming off a terrible season) Travis Wood. If Wood is dealt before the season starts Tsuyoshi Wada, Felix Dubront, Edwin Jackson or Jacob Turner could step in without the team losing much effectiveness.

Remember, sometimes the best signings are the ones that never happen.

Sunday, February 8, 2015

Beckman's media plea shows his ignorance

University of Illinois Head Football Coach Tim Beckman wants the media's help in recruiting players to his football program. He made this clear during his press conference on national signing day. A day that is supposed to be about the future of the football team, the kids who committed their time and talents to the university and the coaches who helped develop those kids into suitable players at the next level. 

Beckman plead with reporters to be more positive in an effort to bring the state's best players to his school. What Beckman fails to realize is that his request undermines every person in that press room and their job to bring factual reporting to the fans. 

Beck wants the press to gloss over the fact that the Illini are a miserable 12-25 through his first three season, and an even worse 4-10 in Big Ten play. Beckman would like them to casually look the other way when it comes to his consistently losing the best talent in the state to the opposition. Beckman would even like them to ignore that during his tenure it's been the mid-major Northern Illinois Huskies that have ruled the state's college football scene. Instead he wants focus on an "improving" program that has gotten two games better with each of his seasons, but still finished the 2014 season with a losing record. 

Beckman's request shows a great deal of ignorance when it comes to the job, ethics and credibility of a reporter. It also does a disservice to a broadcast journalism program at his very school that is fairly well respected. I can't imagine this idea of asking the media to help him recruit is sitting well with the students and professors in that program that are trying to gain the knowledge it takes to work in a highly competitive field. 

If the Illini really need help recruiting top level football prospects, I think it's time Beckman stops looking the camera and starts looking in the mirror. 

Saturday, February 7, 2015

Lester, Maddon Working Phones for Shields

James Shields could be close to making a decision on where to sign. The Padres are considered the front runner for the San Diego resident and eventually it's likely that big money will win out in the end. Rumors earlier in the day Saturday went from "Shields, Padres close" to "Shields, Padres at an impasse". These are common tactics for this stage of negotiations.

What is not common is for a late push from the Cubs from two guys who have yet to appear at Wrigley Field as members of the organization. Word late on Saturday indicated manager Joe Maddon and pitcher Jon Lester both made calls to Shields to convince him to come to the North Side.

You can argue the merits of signing a 33-year-old top of the rotation pitcher at this stage in the rebuild. But what can't be argued is the change in tenor coming out of Clark and Addison. It's not just the stadium that is undergoing huge transformations. It's one thing for young, up and coming stars like Anthony Rizzo to try and convince a veteran of Theo's vision. It's a whole other thing when it's proven winners like Lester and Maddon. They have bought into not just the young ok players being funneled into the big leagues, but the change of culture from perennial bottom dwellers to annual contenders.

These guys carry weight. Maddon and Shields worked together in Tampa and are very familiar with what they expect of each other. Lester is a two-time World Series champion who knows what it takes to win. These guys can pitch knowledge and experience, not just hope.

Shields is thought to prefer the west coast to stay closer to home. The Padres likely have more room financially (in the short term) to commit. But the fact that it is taking so long shows just how much pull the new look Cubs are carrying these days.

Thursday, February 5, 2015

Bulls Problems Extend Beyond Thibodeau

The Bulls are in a free fall. Tom Thibodeau's club has dropped 10 of their last 15 after getting out to an impressive 25-10 start. Rumors are swirling about Thibodeau's relationship with the front office and players and it appears the 2011 NBA Coach of the Year may be on his way out. 

A rift between the Bulls in the office and the Bulls on the floor is nothing new. The franchise has had a negative reputation around the league since the contentious exit of Michael Jordan and Phil Jackson in 1998. That reputation has only advanced following heated relationships with former coaches Scott Skiles, Vinny Del Negro and now with Thibodeau. 

I understand Paxon and Gar having a problem with the long minutes played by starters leaving minimal playing time for guys like Nikola Mirotic and Doug McDermott. It's easy to get frustrated with Thibs riding his players in an out of conference November game like it's game 7 of the NBA Finals. The approach is tough mentally and physically on the players. It can also be dangerous. The knee injury that turned MVP Derrick Rose into the guy wearing number 1 on the team this year is evidence of the franchise altering implications of these decisions. 

Tom Thibodeau is who he is. A deeply intense man bordering on obsession who expects the same from those around him. John Paxon knew it, Gar Forman knew it, the entire NBA knew it. This is what they signed up for when they hired Thibs and now are getting mad at the cat for shedding. 

There is a problem in any work environment when a boss hires a person to do a job but doesn't trust the job to be done. Micromanaging stretches the boss too thin, can crush an employees confidence and blocks the flow of outside the box thinking. If the Bulls front office can't get along with coaches it shows that they can't hire the right coaches for them. Which in turn shows a lack of judgement and ability to build a cohesive team. 

If this team continues to falter down the line and heads toward another one and done in the playoffs , Jerry Reinsdorf should look to George McCaskey for inspiration and do what Chicago's fall disappointment did, clean house. 

Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Cubs in on Shields?

The 2014 American League wild card game was a match-up between Jon Lester and James Shields. Could they both end up in the Cubs 2015 rotation? CSN's David Kaplan is reporting the Cubs are "kicking the tires" on James Shields. Going into the off season the Cubs were tied heavily to Shields, who many believed to be the backup plan if Jon Lester signed elsewhere.

The 33-year-old right hander entered free agency as one of the top three arms available after anchoring the staff of the American League champion Royals. The price to add Shields is rumored to be dropping rapidly from his initial 5 year $110 million asking price.

The Cubs 2015 payroll is near it's limit at  $111.5 million. Adding Shields would be a huge boost to that number and would certainly need approval from the Ricketts family. Theo and Co. appeared to be out on Shields after the addition of Jon Lester and Jason Hammel and with an upcoming free agent class headed by David Price, Jordan Zimmerman and Jeff Samardzija.

I can't imagine the Cubs front office would pursue Shields if it meant they had to sit out next year's crop of younger and better top tier pitchers. The 2015/2016 class certainly fits better with the team's long term plan, but will cost significantly more than Shields.

So how low does the asking price have to get to make sense? Shields played for manager Joe Maddon in Tampa and they had a good relationship. Shields has widely been credited with helping change the culture in both the Tampa Bay and Kansas City locker rooms. He is exactly the kind of veteran presence Maddon would love to add. It seems like a long shot, but if Shields were to accept a 3-4 year deal in the range of $15 million annually, heavily front loaded the Cubs may be able to add Shields now and another front line starter in 2016.

While a commitment of $20 million to the 2015 payroll is a stretch, the Cubs could lighten the blow by dealing Travis Wood and Wellington Castillo. Losing Castillo and Wood's contract would give the Cubs an extra $7.78 million to put toward Shields.

Another thought is that the Cubs are trying to drive up the price for the rival Cardinals who are said to be interested. It would be a shrewd move reminiscent of Epstein's time in the AL east battling the Yankees for free agents. However, the Cardinals interest may be enough to make the Cubs jump in order to keep Shields out of the opposing dugout.

Shields is expected to make a decision by the end of the weekend. It won't be long before we know how interested the Cubs are, how far they're willing to go and How low Shields is willing to go in order to do something special in Chicago.

Cubs Go For Quantity Over Quality for 5th Starter Spot

As pitchers and catchers report to Mesa in two weeks one of the most closely watched battles on the Cubs roster will be for the fifth starter job. The Cubs have made massive upgrades to the rotation this off season with the addition of Jon Lester and Jason Hammel, but the last spot in the rotation remains a question mark. 

The Cubs have opted to go with quantity over quality for two reasons. First, the team is still handcuffed by payroll limitations due in part to the Wrigley Field renovation project. Second, the 2015 free agent pitching class is loaded with top tier talent led by David Price and Jordan Zimmerman. Signing another high priced pitcher like James Shields this off season would leave them on the outside looking in at the abundance of available top of the rotation options next year. 

Barring a trade, the Cubs have five choices for the final spot in the rotation with Travis Wood, Edwin Jackson, Tsuyoshi Wada, Felix Dubront and Jacob Turner all in the running. Considering other fifth starters around the league, this is not a bad problem to have. Wood is a terrible year removed from an all-star selection. Jackson has been awful since signing a 4-year deal with the Cubs, but has been able to eat innings and has been a good clubhouse presence. Jacob Turner is a former top prospect with the Marlins who has struggled mightily during stints in Miami and Chicago, but still has some nasty stuff and could benefit from a full year under the tutelage of pitching coach Chris Bosio. Wada spent most of his 2014 season in Iowa, but the 33-year-old was effective in a late season call up with the Cubs. Felix Dubront was also serviceable during his stint at Wrigley, but with the Cubs light in left handed relievers he may be best suited for bullpen duties. 

Given the high probability of pitching injuries around the league, the Cubs have positioned themselves well to weather any minor storm that may arise in the 2015 season. Any one of these guys can step in for a week or two and perform reasonably. Plus the volume of available arms could allow manager Joe Maddon to give some members of the rotation a day or two of extra rest on occasion. 

While the Cubs have been fielding calls all off season from teams interested in Travis Wood, my guess is he starts the season in the Cubs rotation as they could use a second lefty to pair with Jon Lester. 

While none of the Cubs options for the final rotation spot are likely to knock any one's socks off, they could prove useful during the long grind of a 162-game season. And really, how many teams in the big leagues has a fifth starter that's really worth getting excited about. 
 

Tuesday, February 3, 2015

Bears May Have to Wait for Big Roster Changes

Bear fans longing for massive changes to the team's roster may have to wait a year before they see noticeable results. While general manager Ryan Pace will have some wiggle room under the salary cap heading into his first offseason, 2016 will allow him to rebuild the team as he sees fit.

The Bears currently have 49 players under contract for a $114.7 million dollar cap hit, with the 2015 salary cap expected to be in the $140 million range. Veterans Jared Allen, Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, Jermon Bushrod and Lamarr Houston take up $53.6 million, with just over $48 million of that as dead money. This means that cutting these players would have a minimal impact of the team's salary space.

All that changes after next season. Thanks to back loaded contracts, Pace will be able to slash the payroll and target big free agents in 2016. Releasing the five players above would net the Bears a combined $5 million this offseason, but that number skyrockets to over $37 million after the 2015 campaign.

Barring a trade, Cutler will likely be the team's starting quarterback for at least another year. A weak draft class and an even weaker crop of free agent quarterbacks means Cutler is Fox's best option in 2015. However, another underperforming season and a $14 million dollar saving against the cap could be enough to give Jay the ax a year from now. Although few are likely to make it to the open market, the 2016 crop of quarterbacks that may become available include Andrew Luck (will get an extension), Ben Roethlisberger (too old), Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III, and Ryan Tannehill.

One area the new regime will try to address now is a badly lacking pass rush. The Bears are stuck with Jared Allen and his severely declining skills for one more season. All of Allen's $12.5 million is guaranteed this year, but the remainder of his 4-year contract is non-guaranteed after that. Willie Young was a nice surprise in 2014 and Stephen Paea was the groups best performer. Paea is an unrestricted free agent and the Bears will have to evaluate if he fits into new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio's system, which historically has been a 3-4. This could be an area the Bears could greatly improve via free agency now. This year's class of pass rushers include Jason Paul-Pierre, Greg Hardy, Brian Orakpo, Will Witherspoon and Jason Worilds. Outside linebackers are included in this list because it isn't yet clear if the Bears will switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 or some kind of hybrid.

In the secondary, the Bears need a lot of help at safety. Incumbent starters Ryan Mundy and Chris Conte proved to be ineffective when healthy and Brock Vereen looking like a backup at best. Conte is a pending free agent and is unlikely to be back next season. Possible free agent targets include Antrel Rolle, Devin McCourty, Louis Delmas, Nate Allen and Stevie Brown.

Brandon Marshall had a tough season on and off the field. An early season ankle sprained slowed down the perennial pro-bowl wideout and bizarre behavior wore thin on teammates and coaches alike. Marshall's acting out could have been the result of the lack of leadership and accountability under Phil Emery and Marc Trestman. If Marshall can stay more disciplined under John Fox, he is well worth the money. The Bears may find giving that relationship a year before making a decision on Marshall's future may be the best coarse of action.

With limited cap space (compared to 2016) I don't see the Bears going crazy in free agency, instead addressing needs in the draft. That said, the addition of a pass rusher and safety are both possible given the cap room they have to work with. Don't forget that this roster was widely expected to compete for the division title heading into last season and has the talent on the offensive side of the ball to rebound under new leadership. If Fox can't maximize that talent then we are likely to see sweeping roster changes heading into 2016.

Sunday, February 1, 2015

OBP to Blame for Slower Baseball Games?

As Rob Manferd takes over as the next commissioner of baseball, the question many have been asking is how he plans to address two issues that are perceived weaknesses in the big league game: game length and scoring.

There is no doubt big league games have gotten longer. According to Baseball Prospectus it takes an average of 3:09 to complete a big league game. That is 46 minutes longer than the average game in 1950, when records began being kept.

There are a number of reasons for longer games. More television ads means longer breaks between half innings. The evolution of the bullpen and the amount of time it takes to make pitching changes certainly plays a roll. But perhaps one of the biggest culprits in extending the length of baseball games is the amount of pitches per game.

In 1988 each team averaged just over 136 pitches per game. By 2010, that number skyrocketed to nearly 147. That's an extra 22 pitches per game when you combine both teams. That is almost adding an extra inning per game. But while there have been more pitches thrown and longer games, runs are still down, albeit slightly.

2014 saw an average of 4.07 runs per game. That's down from the 4.38 historical average. That really isn't all that much and is likely not overly noticeable to the casual fan. Essentially you are talking about 1 less run over the coarse of three games less than the average. Where the concern comes in is the steep decline since the end of the steroid era, which peaked just over 5 runs per game in the early 2000's. Scoring has been down for five years straight and concern is that it could plummet further if something is not done.

I'd argue it's not so much the decline in runs but the decline in swings and balls in play that have made the game seem slower. The recent emphasis on strikeout rates for pitchers and on-base percentage for hitters has been paramount in extending the pitch count, thus creating longer at-bats with less action. Nearly one third of at-bats ended in a strikeout, walk or hit by pitch in 2014. That is more than 10% higher than in 1950. That means the ball is not put in play, defense is not making plays, and the batter is not running the bases (during his at-bat). Less movement on the field means a slower game.

While I'm the first to admit taking walks is paramount to a teams offensive success and it's incredibly unlikely to score without base runners, walks (and to a lesser extent strikeouts) are boring.

When Crash Davis told Nuke LaLoosh in "Bull Durham" that ground balls are more democratic, he was right. It keeps the fielders and fans more engaged.