Chisports

Chisports

Friday, January 30, 2015

Urlacher's Story Indicative of Emery's Cowardice

New Bears General Manager Ryan Pace will have his work cut out for him as he tries to change the culture at Halas Hall. Leadership under ousted GM Phil Emery and head coach Marc Trestman was non-existent, often times pushing the limits of professionalism.

There is no better example of the cowardice in which the past regime handled itself than the way it parted ways with soon to be hall-of-famer Brian Urlacher. Urlacher joined Matt Spiegel and Patrick Mannelly on the Score and revealed the reason behind his leaving the Bears.

Urlacher says it wasn't the dollar figure that he was unhappy with in Emery's final offer, it was the lack of communication between, and the "one day, take it or leave it" tenor to the negotiations. Urlacher claims if Emery had discussed with him a set of declining skills and why the offer was low, he would have understood.

I believe Brian completely. The day the Bears tweeted that they were parting ways with Urlacher, I had the chance to speak with him on the phone as he was a guest on the show I was producing at the time. As we briefly exchanged pleasantries, his voice sounding hurt and confused could only muster a "man, this sucks". It was clear from that conversation that this was a severing of a relationship not based on money, but a lack of respect and appreciation.

Urlacher's story is indicative of a culture under Emery and Trestman that would hide behind nice guy glasses while cowardly avoiding any kind of confrontation with their employees. Lance Briggs wants to miss practice opening week to open a restaurant, nothing said by either Trestman or Emery. Brandon Marshall wants to fly to New York to be on an NFL television show... Silence. Marshall with ranting incoherent press conferences about his past domestic abuse or challenging fans to boxing matches... Crickets.

For all the talk by Trestman about "growing the man" he and his boss failed to treat the players underneath them as such. It showed a lack of respect, a lack of courtesy and a lack of professionalism.

The good news is things will be different under John Fox. Fox is a pro who commands respect from his players and hires a staff that does the same. With Fox, Pace knows what he is getting because of the long track record after successful stints in Carolina and Denver. For a general manager who is the league's youngest with no experience, Fox is a perfect fit. My only advice for Pace would be to take a hard look at his predecessor and learn what not to do while running an NFL franchise.

Thursday, January 29, 2015

Cubs Prospect Rankings: The Good, The Bad and Why They Matter

The floodgates have opened when it comes to prospect and farm system rankings. This week mlb.com has been trickling out top 10 positional rankings with a new list released everyday. The week will be capped off by an overall top 50 ranking that will be revealed during a Friday night special on MLB Network. ESPN's Keith Law has also revealed his top 100 prospects along with organizational rankings.

As expected the Cubs are featured prominently on nearly every list. Since taking over a barren system in 2011, Cubs President Theo Epstein has achieved his first goal of rebuilding the Cubs farm system into one of the games best on a yearly basis.

The Cubs are represented in nearly every position in mlb.com's top ten rankings: 1B: Dan Vogelbach (#8), SS: Addison Russell (#3), 3B: Kris Bryant (#1), C: Kyle Schwarber (#3), OF: Jorge Soler (#3).

The hole at second base can be attributed to the mid-season promotions of Arismendy Alcantara and Javier Baez. Both ranked in the top 100 last season. In the outfield the omission of Albert Almora is noticeable and we'll discuss him more in a minute. The last area the Cubs failed to make an appearance is at pitcher. Much has been made of the system's lack of top tier pitching talent, however they have a stable of young arms that have a ceiling as a future #3 or #4 starter. That list is led by CJ Edwards, Pierce Johnson, Duane Underwood, Jeng Ho-Tseng and Carson Sands. These pitchers should begin trickling into the big leagues beginning in 2016.

Let me preface my comments on Law's rankings by recognizing he obviously thinks highly of the Cubs system, ranking it as the game's best. Law rightfully placed three Cubs in the top 15 in all of baseball with Kris Bryant taking the top spot followed by Addison Russell at #4 and Jorge Soler at #14. Where Law's rankings start to lose me is with catcher Kyle Schwarber, who sit at #90, and the absence of Albert Almora.

Schwarber is one of the top 20 bats in all the minor leagues according to a lot of prospect experts, including Baseball America's Ben Badler. Law does not believe Schwarber can stick at catcher, making his bat less valuable in Left field. My problem with this mindset is two-fold. First, The Cubs plan has been and remains to keep Schwarber at catcher. They have been working extensively with him in the offseason to help his development at the position. So, until Schwarber is no longer a catching prospect he should be evaluated as such. My second problem is with Law's emphasis on defense in this particular case conflicting with his evaluation of Albert Almora. If defensive deficiencies are enough to drop a player nearly 70 spots in the overall rankings, then shouldn't a guy with an elite glove at a prime position like Almora see a boost to his value?

Almora disappeared from Law's top 100 list after a subpar offensive season, which was bad but not disastrous. Almora remains an elite defender in center field who will have a big league career regardless of how he hits. The defense is so good that it places his floor as a big league career bench player. I can't imagine that's the case with all the players on Law's top 100.

Of coarse, none of this matters when it comes to on-field productivity, but it does matter in league-wide perception of the team's assets. Prospects are a dangerous game, who more often than not fizzle out. However, depth at each position makes it easier to miss on top prospects and still remain competitive. Some of these guys will be stars, some will fizzle out and some will be traded for established big league talent. Say, for instance, the Cubs are approaching a team about a trade for an ace. If they can present 2-3 top 100 prospects, that is a package that is nearly impossible for any other organization to match without severely depleting it's future.

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

What the Cubs Have to do to Land Cuban Phenom Yoan Moncada

Cuban phenom Yoan Moncada could be cleared to sign with an MLB team within the next couple weeks. Much has been made of the five tool potential of the 19 year-old middle infielder who has been holding private workouts for a number of teams. 

The Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers and Cubs are all known to have serious interest in Moncada, but the Cubs will have a much more difficult time landing the big Cuban. In 2012 the Cubs blew past their international signing allotment when they nabbed two of the top three international players in outfielder Eloy Jimenez and shortstop Gleyber Torrez. As a result, the Cubs are limited in international spending for two years. Those sanctions will be lifted when the international signing clock resets on July 2, which is when the Cubs could sign Moncada.

There are no rules against the Cubs reaching an agreement with Moncada and convincing him to wait until that date to sign. However, if money is equal he could decide the wait is simply not worth it. 

Moncada is expected to shatter the previous international signing bonus and command upwards of $40 million dollars. Add in the overage taxes and an investment could reach nearly $80 million. That's where there Cubs will have to either dig deep or drop out. 

The tax on such a signing is due the following July and the bonus that goes to Moncada can be spread out through three seasons. In order for the Cubs to convince Moncada to wait until July 2nd to sign, they may have to add a hefty price tag for that nearly half year. If you spread out the average value of a $40 million bonus over a three year period it comes to roughly $13.3 million. Meaning in order to make it worth the wait for Moncada, the Cubs may have to throw another $6.5 million on top of his largest offer to cover the six months of waiting, making the Cubs bonus investment close to $95 million. 

Experts believe if Moncada was available in this year's draft he would easily be the top overall selection. It has also been widely speculated that Moncada would fit in the top 5-10 prospects in all of baseball when he signs. Is a player like Moncada worth that kind of heavy investment? 

Top overall picks in the baseball draft usually bring in a bonus ranging from $10-12 million. There is no way to tell what the going rate would be to buy a top overall pick, but it wouldn't be cheap. Given that the Cubs have invested heavily in pitcher Jon Lester and the team has yet to cash in on new signage, a new TV deal and are still paying heavy interest on the sale of the team from the Tribune Company to the Ricketts family, the Cubs would have to be absolutely sure that a 19 year-old prospect is worth such a heavy sum.

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Olt and Baez Provide the Key to Roster Flexibility

If cubs manager Joe Maddon wants a roster with the most flexibility possible, he's going to have to get through to Javier Baez and Mike Olt.

The two former highly rated prospects have a lot of similarity to their game from a statistical standpoint. The 26 year-old Olt and 22 year-old Baez both showed in 2014 that they have the ability to be legit big league power threats, but in order to reach their potential they both need to make contact.

The slash line for both players in 2014 were eerily similar. Olt hit .160/.248/.356 with 12 home runs and 33 RBI in 89 games. Baez appeared in 52 games hitting .169/.227/.324 with 9 home runs and 20 RBI.

More concerning than the low OPS for both players is the strikeout rate. Olt struck out nearly 39% of the time while Baez produced an historically high 41% strikeout rate. The power stroke of both players will be of no use to Maddon if they cannot improve on those numbers.

But if they can... Baez and Olt both have he ability to play all over the field. Baez can hold his own at 2B and SS, and while he has yet to play 3B at the big league level, it should prove an easy transition. Olt carries with him an above average glove at 3B and could get meaningful at-bats at 1B and both corner outfield spots. Thus allowing Maddon to rest Rizzo occasionally or provide insurance if Jorge Soler battles injury issues that plagued him during his minor league career.

While Arismendy Alacanata is expected to play the Zobristesque super utility roll, added roster flexibility can only help a young team like the Cubs. The advantage of having three guys that are so versatile will allow Maddon to more frequently play match-ups, thus allowing him to put these players in the best position to succeed. Favorable match-ups could lead to positive results which could lead to increased confidence for two guys with a world of talent, but who often times looked lost in the box.

Subpar 2014 campaigns mean Olt and Baez will both have to prove they belong on the big league roster coming out of spring training. Alcantara is capable of holding down 3B while the Cubs wait for Kris Bryant to arrive in late April, and newcomer Tommy La Stella would fit nicely starting at 2B. So a productive spring is pivotal for both players to contribute out of the gate.

During his time in Tampa, Maddon was known for being able to get the most out of young players. Only time will tell if he can add Olt and Baez to his impressive list of emerging stars.

Monday, January 26, 2015

So Long Mr. Banks

I was lucky enough to have all four of my grandparents until adulthood with my grandfathers having a profound impact on my life. My Mom's father was a German immigrant who loved animals. We referred to him as DuckyPa. My father's Dad was a second generation baker who we called CookiePa. But there was a third grandfather in my life, one I shared with millions of baseball fans who frequented the corner of Clark and Addison during Chicago summers. This was an adopted grandfather, though he may not have known it. This was a man who had a profound impact on so many despite few personal meetings. This was CubbiePa. This was Ernie Banks.

I heard of CubbiePa's passing while sitting on the editors desk at WBBM and instantly my eyes watered and my throat tightened. Celebrity deaths don't usually rise this kind of response from me, but this was different. I'm too young to have ever seen Ernie play baseball. I knew him as more of a mascot than a hall of fame slugger. I didn't live through his breaking the Cubs' color barrier or the knee injuries that forced his move to first base. I wasn't even a glint in my father's eye when the 1969 Cubs faltered down the stretch leading to the greatest disappointment of CubbiePa's career. But I feel as if I were there for all of it.

Ernie was a constant presence for those of us who grew up wearing Cubs blue. On trips to Wrigley chances were good that Ernie would be there. With his trademark smile and open arms, Banks made time for everyone who asked. It can't be easy for a person to live up to the expectations of millions, but CubbiePa always seemed to rise to the occasion. For those of us lucky enough to meet him face to face we'd be greeted with questions about our families as if he'd known us for years.

It's superficial to place a pro athlete on the same level as a grandfather. The athlete didn't engage in the years of heavy lifting. He wasn't there for the baby sitting or the face to face life lessons. He wasn't there for the birthdays, graduations, wedding or child birth. He wasn't there cooking family meals or on Christmas eve night. But for some reason an adoptive grandfather is always what Banks felt like. When my first nephew first grabbed a baseball bat we reveled at the similarities between his batting stance and CubbiePa's. The straight knees, the slight bend at the waist, the twitching fingers with the hands out front. It was as if the stance was hereditary.

He taught us from afar. Taught us that positivity and optimism is a choice that we can make every day. Taught us that everybody is worth the time to treat respectfully. Taught us about the unrivaled joy of a day at the ballpark and that life is love.

As Cub fans, Banks was ours, and we were his. He showed us that with every autograph, every handshake, every arm around the shoulder. We basked in his joy even when the results on the field were tragic. He basked in our respect and love, even when we misbehaved.

Perhaps the most incredible thing about Banks is the fact that it was all sincere. Working in the radio business I meet a lot of celebrities and athletes. Many of them put on a happy face for fans and cameras, but behind the scenes you get a glimpse of who they really are. All the optimism, positivity, love and joy... It was all real and it was all sincere.

My DuckyPa and CookiePa will always have a large permanent place in my heart. And there will always be just a little bit of room in there for our adoptive baseball grandpa too. We'll miss you CubbiePa.